US-Iran-Israel Ceasefire April 2026: Major Pakistan-Brokered Deal Explained

The ceasefire was not the product of direct US-Iran diplomacy. The two countries had no direct communication channel during the 39-day war. The breakthrough came through Pakistan — PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir had been quietly working between Washington and Tehran for over a week.

Iran submitted its 10-point peace framework through the Pakistani channel. On Monday April 6, Trump called it “significant but not good enough.” Behind the scenes, Sharif and Munir negotiated refinements that would make it acceptable as a basis for talks without requiring either side to abandon maximalist public positions. By Tuesday afternoon, Trump described the framework as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” — a formulation that allowed Iran to claim it had not capitulated while allowing Trump to claim his core demand (Hormuz reopening) was met.

Trump’s announcement explicitly credited Pakistan: “Following my conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan… I have agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.” China also claimed a supporting role — Foreign Minister Wang Yi conducted 26 diplomatic phone calls and China’s special Middle East envoy shuttled between Gulf states promoting a joint Chinese-Pakistani peace framework.

What is included:

• US and Israel suspend all bombing of Iran for two weeks, effective immediately
• Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial shipping — immediately and completely
• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council formally accepted the ceasefire and agreed to negotiate in Islamabad starting April 10
• Iran-backed groups in Iraq (Islamic Resistance in Iraq) suspended operations for two weeks
• Iran’s 10-point peace framework accepted as the basis for ongoing negotiations — not as a final agreement

What is explicitly NOT included:

• Lebanon: Netanyahu’s office confirmed the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon, where Israel’s ground invasion and fighting with Hezbollah continues uninterrupted
• A permanent end to the war: Iran’s SNSC stated: “This does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger.”
• Iran’s nuclear programme: Trump said it “will be perfectly taken care of” but provided no specifics — Iran’s position on civilian enrichment rights has not changed
• Sanctions relief: Iran’s 10-point framework included lifting of sanctions as a demand; the ceasefire does not address this

Financial markets processed the ceasefire instantly and dramatically. Brent crude fell approximately 13% — from around $108 per barrel to approximately $92–95. US WTI crude fell approximately 16% — to around $94. Asian equity markets surged: the Nikkei 225 gained nearly 5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped nearly 6% (trading was briefly halted), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose approximately 2.8%. US S&P 500 futures indicated opening gains of more than 2%.

The oil price drop is significant — but it is not a return to pre-war levels. Brent was approximately $67 on February 27, the day before Operation Epic Fury began. At $92–95, oil remains nearly 40% above pre-war levels. This reflects market skepticism that the ceasefire is durable: Lebanon continues to burn, Hormuz’s full reopening is not yet mechanically confirmed, and the Islamabad talks face enormous gaps. The first tanker convoys through Hormuz in the coming days will be closely watched.

Israel’s response to the ceasefire was carefully calibrated. Netanyahu said Israel “supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks” — but made the Lebanon exclusion explicit and immediate. His strategic logic: Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure has been significantly degraded. The war has achieved the first two of his stated goals. But the third — conditions for Iranian regime collapse — has not been achieved.

The Lebanon carve-out serves two purposes. First, it allows Israel to continue degrading Hezbollah — Iran’s most capable regional proxy — without Iranian resupply (which a Hormuz reopening theoretically enables). A Hezbollah deprived of Iranian logistics is more vulnerable. Second, it gives Netanyahu leverage in Islamabad: if Iran wants Lebanon included in any permanent ceasefire, it will need to pay a price in nuclear negotiations.

The critical test: if Iran judges that Hezbollah’s survival is a red line and restarts its own operations in response to Israeli escalation in Lebanon, the ceasefire collapses. Israeli officials were reported to be “skeptical” of the deal and feared it could “unravel and lead to further escalation if the Iranians don’t make good on quickly opening the Strait of Hormuz.”

As the ceasefire took effect, analysts began tallying what 39 days of Operation Epic Fury had cost across every dimension:

• Human toll: Thousands killed across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and Gulf states. Six children killed in overnight strikes on Iran on April 6 alone. Iranian civil infrastructure — universities, bridges, civilian facilities — extensively damaged.
• Global oil prices: Rose approximately 70% from pre-war levels at peak ($67 → $120+)
• US military cost: Estimated $18 billion by Day 19; Pentagon requested $200 billion supplemental funding
• Arab country costs: Estimated at over $120 billion by March 31
• Strait of Hormuz closure: Described as the world’s largest supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis
• Iran’s losses: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed on Day 1; nuclear enrichment infrastructure severely damaged; IRGC leadership decimated; Bushehr nuclear power plant struck at least four times — prompting the IAEA’s “reddest line” warning

For India, the ceasefire is the most consequential single development since Operation Epic Fury began. Immediate gains:

• Hormuz reopening: India’s crude oil and LPG import routes through the Strait are restored. The supply crisis — which had driven LPG prices up ₹302.50 per cylinder and forced commercial rationing to 70% of pre-crisis levels — begins to ease
• Oil price savings: Every $10 fall in Brent saves India approximately ₹70,000 crore per year. The ~$13 fall saves approximately ₹91,000 crore annually
• OMC relief: India’s oil marketing companies (IOCL, HPCL, BPCL) had been absorbing losses of ₹24–30 per litre. Lower crude prices directly reduce under-recoveries
• Election backdrop: Five state elections (Assam, Kerala, Puducherry on April 9; Tamil Nadu and West Bengal phases later in April) now proceed with falling rather than rising energy prices — a significant political shift
• Fiscal relief: The government’s excise duty cuts (petrol ₹3/litre, diesel zero) were costing ~₹1.55 trillion per year; lower crude gives room to consider reversal

Remaining concerns:

• Lebanon exclusion: ~75,000 registered Indian nationals in Lebanon; fighting continues and evacuation operations may be required
• Ceasefire fragility: Iran’s “hands remain upon the trigger” and IRGC’s history of autonomous action mean supply normalisation cannot be assumed until tankers actually transit Hormuz at volume
• Russia oil waiver: The US 30-day waiver allowing India to buy stranded Russian oil expires around April 4 — India must now decide whether to seek an extension or normalise sourcing
• If Islamabad fails: A breakdown in April 10 talks could trigger a more destructive second phase of the war

The negotiating gap between the US-Israeli position and Iran’s 10-point framework remains enormous. The April 10 Islamabad talks will not resolve the war in one session. What they can realistically achieve:

• Establish a negotiating process — agree on format, modalities, and a timeline for further sessions
• Confirm Hormuz mechanics — what naval escorts, what verification, what Iranian “supervision” looks like in practice for transiting tankers
• Address Lebanon — whether Iran can be persuaded to accept a Lebanon ceasefire in exchange for concessions elsewhere
• Nuclear framework — preliminary discussions on what an acceptable nuclear arrangement looks like from both sides

US negotiating team: Special Envoy Steve Witkoff + Jared Kushner. Iran’s representative: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Supporting roles: Pakistan, China, Turkey, Egypt, and Oman are all expected to participate. The fundamental tension — the US wants a temporary deal producing permanent disarmament; Iran wants a permanent settlement preserving sovereignty and nuclear rights — is not easily reconcilable. But the ceasefire has created diplomatic space that did not exist when both sides were bombing each other daily.