SIPRI Arms Transfers 2025: India 2nd Largest Arms Importer, Russia Share Falls

Ukraine has emerged as the world’s largest arms importer for 2021–25, accounting for 9.7% of global imports — a staggering shift driven entirely by the Russian invasion that began in February 2022. Ukraine’s arms imports increased nearly 100-fold compared to 2015–19, with the United States, Germany, and Poland as its primary suppliers.

Europe as a region has more than tripled its arms imports between 2016–20 and 2021–25 — the most dramatic regional shift in the data. The Ukraine war catalysed a continent-wide rearmament drive across all categories: combat aircraft, air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and munitions. This European surge is the primary driver of the 9.2% increase in global arms transfers between the two five-year periods.

China produced the most striking exit in the data. For the first time since 1991–95, China is no longer in the top 10 arms importers. China’s domestic defence industry has matured to the point where it can produce most systems it requires — combat aircraft, warships, armoured vehicles, missiles — without significant foreign procurement. Simultaneously, China has become the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter, though overtaken by Germany in 2021–25.

The global top importers by rank: 1st Ukraine (9.7%), 2nd India (8.2%), 3rd Saudi Arabia, 4th Qatar, 5th Pakistan (4.2%).

India’s 8.2% share in 2021–25 is lower than the 9.3% it held in 2016–20, and total Indian arms imports fell by 4% between the two periods. SIPRI attributes part of this decline to India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) defence push, which has begun displacing some foreign procurement with domestic production.

However, SIPRI notes that “indigenous programmes often face production delays” — meaning the decline in imports is partly a function of domestic industry not yet being ready to deliver at scale, not purely successful import substitution. Large planned procurements — up to 140 combat aircraft from France and six conventional submarines from Germany — could reverse the import decline if finalised.

India’s relationship with Russia has long defined its arms import profile — but that relationship is contracting at an accelerating pace:

• 2011–15: Russia supplied 70% of India’s arms
• 2016–20: Russia’s share fell to 51%
• 2021–25: Russia now supplies just 40% — the lowest share in decades

Multiple factors drive this decline. Russia’s defence industrial capacity has been severely strained by the Ukraine war — it is consuming its own weapons output and drawing down stockpiles faster than it can produce, leaving fewer systems available for export. Post-2022 Western sanctions have complicated payments, logistics, and spare parts supply chains. India has also deliberately pursued diversification to reduce single-supplier dependence — particularly after experiencing spare parts disruptions in earlier periods.

France (29%) has emerged as India’s second-largest arms supplier, driven primarily by the Rafale combat aircraft. India purchased 36 Rafale jets from Dassault Aviation under a government-to-government deal signed in 2016, with all deliveries completed by 2022. The Indian Navy has since agreed to purchase 26 Rafale Marine (carrier-based variant) aircraft. SIPRI notes that India has placed orders for up to 140 additional combat aircraft from France — a procurement that, if finalised, would make France India’s dominant supplier for the foreseeable future.

Israel (15%) has grown into India’s third-largest arms supplier. Key Israeli systems supplied to India include the Barak-8 medium-range surface-to-air missile (developed jointly under the Long Range Surface to Air Missile / LR-SAM programme), loitering munitions, unmanned aerial systems (UAVs), and electronic warfare equipment. India-Israel defence relations have deepened significantly since the 1990s.

Pakistan — 5th largest importer, 66% surge: Pakistan’s arms imports grew by 66% between 2016–20 and 2021–25, lifting it to fifth place globally with a 4.2% share. The driver is unambiguous: China supplied 80% of Pakistan’s arms during 2021–25, up from 73% in 2016–20. China has become Pakistan’s near-exclusive arms patron — providing the JF-17 Thunder combat aircraft (co-developed), Type 054A/P frigates, HQ-9 air defence systems, and a range of missiles and armoured vehicles. Turkey and the Netherlands are distant second and third suppliers.

SIPRI explicitly states that “India’s tensions with China and Pakistan largely drive its arms imports” — and that both India and Pakistan used imported weapons in their brief armed confrontation in May 2025.

China — exiting the import list: China’s exit from the top 10 importers is a landmark in global defence industrial development. At its peak, China was among the world’s largest arms importers — primarily from Russia (Su-27/30 fighters, Kilo-class submarines, S-300 air defence systems). China has since developed domestic equivalents of all these: the J-11/16, Type 039 submarine, and HQ-9. This closure of the import chapter marks China’s arrival as a mature defence industrial power.

United States — 42% of global exports: The US has extended its dominance as the world’s arms supplier, up from 36% in 2016–20. Washington exported to 99 states during 2021–25 — covering every region of the world. The US accounts for 45% of all global exports of long-range land-attack missiles. In Asia and Oceania, the US supplied 35% of total regional imports.

France — 2nd at 9.8%: French exports increased 11% from 2016–20, driven primarily by Rafale sales to Egypt, Qatar, Greece, Croatia, Indonesia, and India. France’s pending order book remains strong.

Russia — 3rd, down sharply: Russia’s export share has collapsed from close to 25% at its 2011–15 peak to a significantly diminished third place in 2021–25. India (40%), China (17%), and Kazakhstan (11%) remain Russia’s top buyers — but all three are reducing their shares.

Germany — 4th, overtaking China: Germany’s arms exports grew by 28% between periods, lifting it above China into fourth place globally. German exports are dominated by submarines, frigates, and armoured vehicles — with Greece, South Korea, and Norway as major customers. Germany’s potential sale of six conventional submarines to India could further boost its ranking.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) is an independent international think tank based in Solna, Sweden (near Stockholm — but not in Stockholm city proper). Founded in 1966, it is the global reference standard for data on conflict, armaments, arms transfers, and disarmament.

SIPRI publishes three flagship annual reports: the SIPRI Yearbook (comprehensive review of armaments and security), Trends in International Arms Transfers (released each March), and the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (tracks national defence budgets).

SIPRI’s Trend Indicator Value (TIV) methodology measures the volume of arms transfers using a standardised unit based on known unit production costs of reference weapons. It is not a measure of financial value — SIPRI TIV figures are not comparable to contract prices, rupee budgets, or dollar deal values.