India’s Climate Risk in 2025: Progress, Pressure, and the Path to Resilience

1. Introduction

India has moved in the right direction on the Global Climate Risk Index (CRI). In the latest edition, India ranks 15th for the year 2024 and 9th over the 1995–2024 period. A lower rank indicates comparatively lower impacts from extreme weather during the period measured. These shifts suggest improvements in preparedness, early warning, and post-disaster recovery.

The timing matters. The report arrives in the lead-up to COP30 in Belém, shaping how donors, insurers, and national planners gauge vulnerability and readiness. It provides a common metric that informs negotiations and resource allocation.

2. What the Global Climate Risk Index Measures

The CRI is a retrospective assessment. It ranks countries by the human and economic toll of extreme weather events based on EM-DAT data. The index uses six indicators across absolute and relative deaths, affected populations, and economic losses.

The 2026 edition covers 1995–2024 and the year 2024.

Importantly, the CRI does not predict future events. Rather, it reveals patterns of past impacts, helping countries assess whether their policy and risk management systems are improving over time.

3. India’s Rank in 2025: What Changed and Why

India improved in both the annual and long-term rankings: 15th in 2024 and 9th over 1995–2024, a slight improvement from 8th in the previous long-term cycle.

Three factors contribute to this movement:

• Stronger early warning systems
• Better institutional response capacity
• Policy reforms across sectors and states

India’s leadership in resilient infrastructure globally has also played a role.

Meanwhile, the 2024 list is topped by St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Chad, showing where acute impacts were most severe. Over the long term, Dominica, Myanmar, and Honduras remain most affected. These trends reinforce India’s argument for significantly scaled-up climate finance.

4. A Three-Decade Picture: Loss, Lives, and Money

From 1995 to 2024, the world experienced over 9,700 extreme weather events, more than 832,000 deaths, and about USD 4.5 trillion in inflation-adjusted losses. Heat waves and storms caused the largest share of fatalities and economic damage.

India’s pattern aligns with this global picture. Over three decades, India has recorded nearly 430 extreme events, 80,000+ deaths, and around USD 170 billion in losses. Events such as Cyclones Hudhud (2014), Amphan (2020), the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, and recurring heat waves dominate this history.

5. Events That Shaped India’s Risk Profile

India’s exposure spans coastlines, river basins, floodplains, and drought-prone regions.

• Cyclones impact the east coast with storm surge and wind damage.
• Floods arise from monsoon extremes and rapid urbanisation.
• Heat waves have intensified in duration and magnitude.

The 2024 climate year was influenced by El Niño, though attribution studies continue to show strong human-driven warming signals. Smaller island states tend to experience sharp year-to-year shifts, while India remains consistently high in long-term rankings due to repeated, cumulative impacts.

6. Policy Response: Institutions, Plans, and Early Warnings

India’s climate governance has expanded since the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008, anchored by its eight missions on energy, habitat, water, agriculture, and knowledge systems. States have followed with their own climate action plans, helping align local priorities with national frameworks.

India has also taken global initiative through the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), launched in 2019. CDRI focuses on resilience standards for power, transport, and telecom systems, and supports small island states through programs such as IRIS.

Early warning capabilities have strengthened significantly:

• Cities use 72-hour flood forecasting linked to dashboards.
• Heat action plans now include ward-level mapping, cooling centers, and public advisories.

These advances have helped reduce mortality and maintain essential services during climate shocks.

7. Finance and Collaboration: The Bigger Levers

Finance remains the critical bottleneck. The CRI calls for larger and faster flows across mitigation, adaptation, and loss-and-damage. It stresses that high-income and high-emitting countries must scale commitments to match the scale of global impacts.

Within India, discussions are growing around parametric and climate-linked insurance. These mechanisms trigger payouts when defined thresholds are crossed (such as temperature or rainfall levels), enabling faster relief and reducing fiscal strain. Pilot projects across several states and cities show promising results.

8. What This Means for States, Cities, and Farms

National rankings mask large subnational variation.

• Coastal states need resilient transmission lines, cyclone shelters, and fast-restore power systems.
• River basins require upstream rainfall and reservoir data integrated into district control rooms.
• Dryland areas need drought plans, diversified cropping, and water budgeting.

Cities face the most complex risk mix:

• Heat action plans should combine early warning, passive cooling in housing, and green-blue networks to manage heat and stormwater.
• Flood-prone wards need pump stations, shelters, and community-linked alert systems.

Agriculture needs localised climate-smart practices: heat-tolerant seeds, micro-irrigation, soil moisture tracking, and reliable crop insurance.

9. Risks That Still Demand Attention

Even with improvements in rank, risk remains high. India continues to face:

• Longer, deadlier heat waves
• Flooding in major cities and industrial zones
• Intensifying coastal threats from sea-level rise and stronger storms

Key gaps remain:

• Some city heat plans lack mandates, budgets, and accountability mechanisms.
• Watershed, dam, and drainage systems need better data and coordinated operations.
• Informal settlements remain exposed to floods without adequate shelters or clean water access.
• Public health systems need surge plans for heat stroke, vector-borne disease, and flood-related illnesses.

10. The Road Ahead: Priorities for the Next Five Years

1) Universal multi-hazard early warnings

Complete nationwide early warning coverage for all hazards. Ensure alerts are in local languages and tied to clear household, school, and workplace actions. Expand city-level dashboards and open data platforms.

2) Disaster-ready infrastructure

Embed CDRI-aligned design standards into major infrastructure programs. Harden power and telecom assets in cyclone zones, elevate critical equipment, and secure service corridors to keep hospitals, water plants, and transport nodes functional.

3) Scaled climate-smart agriculture

Support heat- and drought-tolerant crop varieties, precision irrigation, and decentralized water storage. Link seasonal advisories to farm decisions via apps, cooperatives, and radio. Expand parametric crop insurance where data systems are mature.

4) Reduce urban heat

Update building codes for passive cooling and prioritise cool roofs in public buildings and low-income housing. Expand tree cover and develop ward-level heat maps each spring.

5) Align finance with resilience outcomes

Use pooled municipal bonds for heat and flood projects. Develop resilience metrics that unlock lower interest rates for risk-reducing infrastructure. Advocate dedicated financing windows in multilateral banks for fast, replicable designs.

6) Track outcomes transparently

Publish annual state resilience scorecards covering casualties, injuries, days of service disruption, and recovery times. Tie funding to measurable improvement in resilience metrics.

Key Takeaways Table